ACUS03 KWNS 121901
SWODY3
SPC AC 121900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms still appears negligible across much of
the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough, with embedded perturbations, will persist
across the eastern CONUS as a 500 mb cut-off low continues to
meander over the Four Corners region. Widespread surface high
pressure behind a cold front will overspread the MS Valley toward
the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard, resulting in enough static
stability to limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The
cold front should be drifting southward across the FL Peninsula,
with thunderstorms possible across southern portions of the state by
afternoon. A couple of lightning flashes are also possible over
portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Erie (and immediate surrounding
landmass), as cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper
trough overspread relatively warm waters. Finally, cooler mid-level
temperatures and associated lapse rates accompanying the cut-off low
may support a couple of thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the
Four Corners given the assistance of orographic lift.

..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024

$$

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