ACUS03 KWNS 120705
SWODY3
SPC AC 120704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the mid-latitude westerlies will remain
modestly amplified, but still generally progressive through this
period and beyond.  Within this regime, it appears that large-scale
troughing will continue to evolve across the Mississippi Valley
through the Atlantic Seaboard.  One significant embedded short wave
perturbation is forecast to be accompanied by strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard
into the Canadian Maritimes, and across the St. Lawrence Valley.  As
a trailing perturbation digs across the Upper Midwest toward the
lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface ridging is likely to
build southward through the interior U.S. Monday through Monday
night.

It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance
southeastward through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well
south of the mid-level cold core (becoming centered over the Great
Lakes) and upper support for large-scale ascent, with little
appreciable risk for thunderstorms.  As flow trends cyclonic across
the Gulf of Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual
mid-level shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a
remnant plume of tropical moisture, appears likely to gradually
shift across and southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and
Keys.

Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging is likely to continue
to develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies.
However, a weakening low initially over the Great Basin may
generally be maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the
west and southwest of the Four Corners region.

..Kerr.. 10/12/2024

$$

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