ACUS03 KWNS 111929
SWODY3
SPC AC 111928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WV...EASTERN KY...NORTHEAST TN...EXTREME WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST
OH...SOUTHWEST PA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky and
northeast Tennessee through West Virginia and into southwest
Pennsylvania by early Sunday evening, posing a threat for damaging
wind gusts and possibly some hail.

...Eastern KY/TN into WV/PA...
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will continue to amplify over
the north-central into eastern CONUS on Sunday, as a strong
shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the
lower Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. A surface low is
forecast to move eastward along a quasi-stationary front from parts
of IN/OH into western PA through the day, though guidance begins to
diverge by Sunday evening with the intensity and track of this low.
A trailing cold front will move through parts of the OH/TN Valleys
and eventually reach the western slopes of the Appalachians.

Only modest low-level moistening is expected along/ahead of the
front through Sunday afternoon, though relatively strong heating
will support a narrow corridor of at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from
the OH/TN Valleys into parts of western WV and perhaps southwest PA.
Warm-sector thunderstorm development may remain isolated at best
through the day, but some increase in storm coverage will be
possible into the evening as large-scale ascent gradually
strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough.
Increasing low/midlevel flow (generally 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb
layer) will support a threat of strong/damaging gusts with the more
robust storms. Steepening midlevel lapse rates could also result in
some hail threat, especially if the more aggressive
moisture/instability forecasts are realized.

..Dean.. 10/11/2024

$$

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