ACUS02 KWNS 111722
SWODY2
SPC AC 111720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday.

...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley...
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across
parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a
shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from
the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A
surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL
border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is
forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio
Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front
begins to move southeastward.

While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse
rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization
along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm
development still appears limited in the absence of more robust
moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will
support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front,
especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern
IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening
deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization,
though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000
J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe
hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 10/11/2024

$$

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