ACUS03 KWNS 110649
SWODY3
SPC AC 110648

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OHIO AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky
through West Virginia by early Sunday evening, with some posing a
risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain
amplified, with at least some further amplification of large-scale
troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Ohio
Valley through this period.  Models indicate at least a couple of
vigorous short wave perturbations digging through this regime, one
of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a
frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a
plume along and southeast of a remnant mid-level shear axis across
the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.  However, models
indicate that a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer
ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of
modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday
afternoon.

...Eastern Kentucky into West Virginia...
Models vary considerably concerning the evolution of the surface
cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into Northeast.  However, there
appears a general consensus that a moistening but well mixed
pre-frontal boundary layer will become characterized by modest CAPE
on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at
least a narrow corridor.  It appears that this will occur in the
presence of strengthening deep-layer westerly mean wind fields,
including 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer.  Stronger mid-level
height falls may not begin overspreading this corridor until late
Sunday afternoon or later, but the environment may remain conducive
to strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small hail and potentially
damaging wind gusts well into Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 10/11/2024

$$

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