ACUS02 KWNS 110452
SWODY2
SPC AC 110451

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by
early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will
become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to
the east of the Aleutians.  This is forecast to lead to amplifying
flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including
building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and
digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian
Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period.

In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced
inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing
initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern
Rockies.  Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of
Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through
the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially
near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken
further.  It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady
or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level
perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida.

Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of
the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is
forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal
zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early
Saturday.

...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley...
Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will
suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially
quasi-stationary frontal zone.  However, downstream of the southern
periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization
rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute
to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the
frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday
night.  Given the generally weak forecast instability and
cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger
storms seems low.

..Kerr.. 10/11/2024

$$

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