ACUS02 KWNS 101727
SWODY2
SPC AC 101725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Great Lakes into New England...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are
forecast to move quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes
vicinity through the day, and then reach New England by later Friday
night. A cold front will move across parts of the Great Lakes, upper
Midwest, and eventually parts of the Northeast in conjunction with
this system.

Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front, limiting
the thunderstorm potential across much of the warm sector. Very
modest buoyancy may develop across the Great Lakes region during the
afternoon, and into northern New England late Friday night, where
low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling
mid-level temperatures. This will result in the potential for weak
convection with sporadic lightning flashes.

At this time, there is a somewhat stronger signal for thunderstorm
potential across parts of WI/MI, where a general thunderstorm area
has been maintained. A few flashes cannot be ruled out into New
England Friday night, though this potential is more uncertain.
Low/midlevel flow will be rather strong, so locally gusty winds will
be possible if any relatively deep and sustained convection can
develop across the region.

...Elsewhere...
Elevated convection that may develop late in the D1/Thursday period
across OK and north TX could persist into Friday morning, with some
thunder potential. Convection may become deep enough to support some
thunderstorm potential across the FL Keys, and possibly into
southern portions of the FL Peninsula. A mid/upper-level shortwave
trough will move into parts of central/northern CA and the Pacific
Northwest, but thunderstorm potential across the region currently
appears limited due to very weak instability.

..Dean.. 10/10/2024

$$

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