AWUS01 KWNH 100434
FFGMPD
FLZ000-101045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Areas affected...portions of North-Central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100445Z - 101045Z

Summary...Locally catastrophic flash flooding likely to continue
as Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula with
2-3"/hr rainfall rates and 3-8" additional totals.

Discussion...Hurricane Milton is progressing across the central FL
Peninsula at this hour, undergoing extratropical transition in the
process with heavy rainfall confined to the northern half of the
circulation. Convection associated with Milton remains intense,
largely due to this extratropical transition process (and the
associated strong upper-level divergence from the right entrance
region of a 140+ kt jet streak off the Northeast coast). GOES-East
infrared imagery indicates cloud top temperatures of -85deg C or
colder, along with multiple lightning strikes via the GLM
instrument. This corresponds to estimated cloud top heights of
40-50k feet (via KTBW/MRMS echo top data), and this continues to
support significant tropical rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr (with
precipitable water values at record breaking levels of 2.4-2.7
inches).

Hi-res models are in good agreement in keeping the remnant of the
northern eyewall of Milton convectively active until its emergence
over the Atlantic in the next 4-6 hours. This will bring the 50
mile wide swath of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates from the
Lakeland/Orlando metro areas northeastward into more rural
portions of the peninsula between Orlando and Jacksonville, as
well as into coastal cities such as Daytona Beach, Palm Coast, and
St. Augustine. This will result in an additional 1-3" of rainfall
in the vicinity of Lakeland/Orlando (where 6-12" of rainfall has
already fallen over the past 12 hours), and an additional 3-8"
over adjacent portions of the northeastern peninsula and coastal
cities (where 2-4" has already fallen over the past 12 hours).
Flash flooding (some locally catastrophic) will continue in the
hard-hit areas of Lakeland/Orlando, while flash flooding is likely
to continue and expand to those areas towards the northeast (which
may also experience locally significant to catastrophic flash
flooding).

Churchill

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DZ3fjg!62KuibCvgzzgD5po1BTLbB2g4j0IWIy2wowkA6k0YwjMv_2VqqCqDR6bYKIVNnn4tUjs=
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ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30088126 29498102 28748065 28448090 28128151=20
            27938209 28378240 29238219 29618188 29978159=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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