ACUS03 KWNS 091913
SWODY3
SPC AC 091912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with
a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent.

First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered
around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK
and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated
thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday.

A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast,
westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But
given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the
trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday
through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region.

Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly
low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast
of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2
to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction
with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for
deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible.

..Grams.. 10/09/2024

$$

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