AWUS01 KWNH 091435
FFGMPD
FLZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...eastern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091433Z - 092000Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with rainfall
rates between 1-3 in/hr are expected to pose a flash flood threat
to the eastern FL Peninsula from east of Lake Okeechobee to
Jacksonville. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches through 20Z
will be possible, but likely remaining localized.

Discussion...14Z regional radar imagery showed a slow moving axis
of heavy rainfall located in northeastern FL between Saint
Augustine and Palm Coast, extending inland about 25 miles. Peak
observed rainfall rates have been between 1-2 in/hr but the
persistent slow moving nature of the rainfall has led to 2 to 4+
inch rainfall totals since midnight, but with much of that falling
over the past 4 hours. Another axis of heavy rain was occurring
near Cape Canaveral with a northward movement observed, but with
redevelopment and repeating from the south. Easterly winds of
20-30 kt at 925 mb were contributing to low level axes of
confluence, helping to focus the ongoing axes of heavy rainfall
with mean steering flow from the south. Aloft, a strong upper
level jet axis was located along the southern Mid-Atlantic coast
with right entrance region ascent contributing to lift across the
FL Peninsula.

SPC mesoanalysis and RAP data showed a relative minimum in
instability between the two ongoing axes of heavy rainfall that is
forecast to persist over the next 3-5 hours, but the environment
remained highly favorable for heavy rain with precipitable water
values of 1.8 to 2.3 inches. Short term forecasts from the RAP
indicate the northern confluence axis slowly edging northward
through 20Z, possibly affecting the Jacksonville metro into the
early afternoon. Farther south, development of
showers/thunderstorms is expected from near northern Palm Beach
County toward the Cape Canaveral region with slow northward
translation but with regeneration and repeating from the south
within the confluent flow. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4
inches are expected through 20Z over portions of the eastern
Peninsula, though cannot rule out localized additional totals over
4 inches. Localized flash flooding will be possible, especially
with overlap of urban corridors.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6m7X87byyiaCT1Dr08_3nVnvIw0masfV791yzaHZzyjV37yAQCDg8hjjNow46ed4PunT=
cxMDIdnO2ekeFdMgl4UCWV0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30628125 29988090 28528033 27297993 26858053=20
            26948101 27528132 28138176 29118216 29668215=20
            30088200 30548181=20

=3D =3D =3D
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