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Prices jumped early in the morning, then quickly levelled out but
continued rising very modestly.  Oil continues to tumble.  That's good,
but oil related changes tend to happen either at 2PM when the futures
market closes, or when significant news is released.  No, what's driving
this is speculation the FOMC is going to have to press the "PAUSE"
button.

As you can see below, my Momentum indicator switched to positive today,
signalling "Buy!"  Prices were up more than enough for my formulas to
consider it a "significant" gain.  But volume was only +4% above
average, good but not a Bullish confirmation.  I'd say the next key
level that might act as a resistance level is last month's 1245 level.
On the other hand, we're up against the upper Bollinger band which is
often a resistance level.

We still need to watch the institutional investors.  Even the mutual
fund managers with positions to dump will be willing to hold on as long
as this enthusiasm runs, wouldn't you?  But that would be "nervous
money", ready to flood the market if it appears prices have topped.  We
should be able to see that in the market action.

If I were an active inevstor, I think my general attitude would be like
the institutional investors, looking for a short-term top to sell into,
rather than looking to buy into the next leg of a Bull Market.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _>__     _|__     __<_     _|__     __<_     08/30
 __>_     _|__     __|_     ___|     __>_     __<_     08/31
 __>_     __     __<_     09/01
 _>__     ___     __>_     __<_     09/02
 ___>     __     __<_     09/06

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/06/05 S&P:    1233
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

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