ACUS03 KWNS 090713
SWODY3
SPC AC 090712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced westerlies will likely extend from the Canadian
Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern Quebec into
New England. A shortwave trough embedded within these westerlies is
forecast to progress quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec. A
surface low associated with this shortwave will take a similar path
while an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the
northern/central Plains and the Upper/Mid MS Valley. Low-level
moisture ahead of this front will be scant, largely precluding
thunderstorm development. A few isolated flashes are possible in the
eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL vicinity early Saturday, but
coverage is expected to be less than 10%.

Relatively weak flow aloft and stable surface conditions are
anticipated elsewhere across the majority of the CONUS, precluding
thunderstorm development. Some moisture return is possible late
Friday/early Saturday across the TX Coastal Plain, but warm
temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection. Only area where
thunderstorm coverage is expected to exceed 10% is over the
eastern/southern FL Peninsula. Here, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
will support modest buoyancy during peak heating. Surface
northeasterlies and related low-level confluence may contribute to a
few thunderstorms during the afternoon.

..Mosier.. 10/09/2024

$$

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