ACUS11 KWNS 090431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090431=20
FLZ000-090600-

Mesoscale Discussion 2134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Areas affected...portions of the extreme southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 090431Z - 090600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may approach the extreme southern
tip of the FL Peninsula over the next couple of hours, perhaps
accompanied by a tornado threat. The severe threat should remain
very localized, and a Tornado Watch issuance does not currently
appear imminent.

DISCUSSION...Pronounced supercell structures have materialized near
a baroclinic boundary over FL Bay over the past hour or so, and are
drifting north at around 5 kts. KBYX radar imagery depicts up to 35
kt rotation velocities about 2500 ft AGL, suggesting that
mesocyclonic waterspouts may be in progress. At the moment,
hodographs on regional VADs do not appear overly impressive,
suggesting that favorable low-level shear/SRH is likely constrained
to small areas nearest to the baroclinic boundary. Furthermore,
adequate instability appears to be constrained to mainly southern
Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties. As such, any inland tornado
potential realized by these supercells as they attempt to move
ashore should be very limited in spatial extent, so a Tornado Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time. However, a Tornado Watch
issuance will become more probable into the morning hours as the
more favorable environment gradually expands and shifts northward.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 10/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4DKx5PyUqP1vNvyvDcMijGOHzcAp-B6JQtDT4k2KmwrBZfu8G3yYopK6wljGUeRPsQS0R7wVo=
sXknvOOLv2_Wm9aqCM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

LAT...LON   25338128 25628120 25678082 25508051 25298046 25178056
            25138080 25338128=20


=3D =3D =3D
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