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echo: barktopus
to: Bruce Biermann
from: Gene McAloon
date: 2004-03-13 23:15:02
subject: Re: Nominatability versus Electability

From: Gene McAloon 

On Sat, 13 Mar 2004 19:02:30 -0800, "Bruce Biermann"
 wrote:

>Bill Lucy wrote:
>> I really don't understand this poll.
>
>The only polls worth a damn are those where people put money on the line.
>
>Look at the likely electoral college outcome.  Look at the numerous betting
>sites.  Right now, Bush is projected to win easily.
>
>               Bruce better, just looking at the probabilities>
>
Gamblers are no better at predictions than anyone else, quite possibly
worse. That money is involved means nothing. Las Vegas is full of people
with money - from which they are quickly parted.

The last people I would take seriously on predicting the outcome of the election
are gamblers. Their predictions on past elections were no better than
anyone else's. Worse in fact.

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