ACUS48 KWNS 080818
SWOD48
SPC AC 080816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected
to progress through the enhanced westerly flow over southern Canada
throughout the period. The first shortwave is forecast to move from
Ontario through the St. Lawrence Valley and New England on
D4/Friday. The second shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of
the first, progressing from the Canadian Prairies through the Upper
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Saturday. Beginning late
D5/Saturday or early D6/Sunday, this second shortwave may further
mature into a cyclone over eastern Ontario. This cyclone is then
forecast to drift eastward early next week, with upper troughing
associated with this system expanding over the central and eastern
CONUS.

Some modest moisture return is possible into the Mid MS and OH
Valleys on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold
front that is currently expected to move through on D6/Sunday.
Current guidance suggest the moisture return, and associated
buoyancy, will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and
keeping the severe potential low. A dry continental airmass will
build in behind the front, promoting stable conditions the majority
of the central and eastern CONUS early next week.

..Mosier.. 10/08/2024

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