AWUS01 KWNH 080554
FFGMPD
FLZ000-081145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 AM EDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Areas affected...Florida Keys & Far Southern Florida Peninsula...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080555Z - 081145Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for training thunderstorms in
vicinity of Florida Keys.  While hard to hit, solid potential for
2-3"/hr rates and spots of 4-6" totals.  If intersecting,
accompanying rapid inundation flooding is considered possible
through morning.

DISCUSSION...Surface and remote sensing suite depicts a developing
surface low to the NW of Grand Bahama westerly winds pressing the
front off southern Florida, before the front orients flat east to
west across the Florida Bay before angling northwest along the
coast to a shearing out and retrograding low near 25.6N 83.6W.=20
VWP from BYX and AMX depict this stretching axis across the
southern peninsula with unidirectional deep layer flow supporting
a WSW to ENE training axis across the area of concern.
GOES-E SWIR and RAP winds suggest broader but confluent warm
advective low level flow regime along the spine of the Keys into
Florida Bay with ample deep layer moisture AoA 2.5" with ample low
level profile to support narrow skinny profile with solid unstable
air given values of 2000-2500 J/kg.  As such the strong low level
convergence is supporting bands of developing CBs from upstream of
Dry Tortugas through the area before strongest convergence resides
just southwest of the base of the frontal zone where some sfc
southwesterly flow is at or about 15-20kts supports stronger
moisture flux convergence.=20=20

The placement of features: isallobaric response to the growing
complex in the eastern Florida Straits, retrograding low will
support continual convergence upstream redevelopment and training
profile to allow for thunderstorms to track through the Keys into
far southern Florida for the next few hours.  Given ample moisture
flux, rates of 2-3"/hr are possible per Hi-Res CAMs.  Solid
probability from 00z HREF suggest 3-5" suggest the training cells
have sufficient proximity to land that any intersection may result
in localized totals in short enough duration to allow for rapid
inundation/urban style flooding.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9KEv30E6oKWRUEGlbTyMneIR31mCoNLL99BX_pk2BEo6xgwVKx7J-M4I1KiHtNR3L3tZ=
HQo-fHdrInhoUVRv8wYDH7o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   25648022 25508014 25288021 25128032 24688089=20
            24518151 24528188 24708171 24938110 25078109=20
            25318121 25508099 25538062=20

=3D =3D =3D
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