ACUS48 KWNS 070832
SWOD48
SPC AC 070830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places
Hurricane Milton just off the east-central FL Coast early
D4/Thursday morning. This system is expected to interact with a
larger scale upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS throughout
the day on D4/Thursday, causing it to eject quickly northeastward
into the Atlantic. Upper ridging will likely be in place from the
Southwest into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday, and this
ridging is expected to shift eastward in the wake of the eastern
CONUS troughing. Some dampening of this ridge is possible on
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a shortwave trough progresses
throughout its northern periphery across central Canada and
Ontario/Upper Great Lakes. The northern stream is expected to stay
fairly active during the weekend, with another shortwave trough
likely dropping from the Canadian Prairies and Great Lakes on
D7/Sunday.

Any stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the better
low-level moisture on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Some moisture
return into the Mid MS and OH Valleys is possible on D6/Saturday and
D7/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently
expected to move through on D7/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the
moisture return will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and
keeping the severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 10/07/2024

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