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The market today had a decidedly shorter view than the longer term
outlook of my Friday commentary.  So the story goes, the morning
session's trading was dominated by a feeling that we "dodged the bullet"
when Rita missed the Houston refineries.  Prices were up nicely, if not
significantly, and Up-Volume led Down-Volume by major fractions.  But
about lunchtime reports began coming in about refineries in the path.
Refineries in Port Arthur, Beaumont, and Port Charles might take a
couple weeks to get online.  Oil jumped and stocks slid into negative
territory.  Just before the close a minor rally brought prices to
basically flatline.  Volume increased a bit, but was still only +3%
above average.

Call me a cynic, but I wonder how much incentive the oil companies have
to bring things back as rapidly as they could.  In the name of "supply
and demand", they're getting whatever they want for fuels, and training
us to pay it.  Would I be "shocked, shocked" to learn that all in the
name of safety, refineries will be coming online only whenever they're
"ready"?

With all the uncertainties along the Gulf coast, being in a period of
the year that often, well, in a word, "sucks", there seems little reason
to do anything risky in the market.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _|__     _|__     ___>     <___     __|_     09/20
 _     <___     __<_     09/21
 __     <___     __<_     09/22
 ___     <___     __<_     09/23
 __|_     __     _|__     __<_     09/26

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/06/05 S&P:    1233
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... That's not a bug.  That's a new feature!
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