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Well, it was pretty ugly again today.  It was bad all morning, and worse
all afternoon.  Prices closed down almost -10pts and volume slid a bit
but was still +3% above average.

Our rising bottoms support line that technical analysts are watching is
down at 1217, so prices could drop nearly -30pts and still the trend
would be intact.  But you can be sure that would cause some panic on
Main Street and perhaps on Wall Street.  But would it be a bad thing?
Not really.  At least, reaching that level wouldn't be bad in itself,
presuming it really was support and brought in the bargain hunters.

I also track 20-day, 50-day & 200-day moving averages of price.  Most
technical analysts only watch the 50-day & 200-day.  Those would be
considered support and resistance lines too.  Prices above the 50-day
would be Bullish, below the 200-day Bearish, and between, transitional.
I use the 20-day as an alert.  It's at 1231, -5pts below today's close.

So, for now, the trend is intact.  But that doesn't keep me from
worrying about the Oscillator and volume.  It's looking to me like the
rats (secondary stocks) are abandoning the ship (the major indices).

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     ____     __>_     ___|     07/29
 __|_     __     _|__     __|_     ___|     08/01
 __|_     __     __<_     __|_     ___|     08/02
 __|_     __     __|_     __|_     ___|     08/03
 _|__     __     __|_     _|__     ___|     08/04

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... And God said: E = (1/2)mv^2 - Ze^2/r, and there was light!
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