AWUS01 KWNH 051950
FFGMPD
FLZ000-060149-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern FL & the Keys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051949Z - 060149Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
showing minimal movement across southern FL.  Hourly rain totals
to 3" with local totals to 6" possible over the next several hours.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are forming near sea breeze
boundaries and in the proximity to a warm front draped across
southern FL.  Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".  Low level
inflow as well as the mean 850-400 hPa flow is weak, which is
leading to minimal movement to activity across the southern tip of
the peninsula and southwest FL.  Other activity lurks near the
Middle and Upper Keys.  ML CAPE is approaching 2000 J/kg which is
being aided by afternoon insolation.

The concern is that with minimal cell movement that amounts which
were seen south of Florida City and west of Key Largo could
materialize across southwest FL and the Keys through the remainder
of the afternoon into the early evening, with radar estimates near
6".  Areas of the West Coast in particular have been especially
wet this year with large, in places 20"+, annual surpluses.=20
Rainfall over the past week has continued this theme between Cape
Coral and Naples.  Hourly rain totals to 3" with local totals to
6" remain possible into this evening, which could lead to flash
flooding of urban areas and important thoroughfares, such as US 1,
US 41, and I-75.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6wdggIxSWYv3WcBR5q0w5nDqxxgfUIsmbL4f_hRw6b-Am8lGnS7fQmlk98a0wghrMSF0=
uW4BKvJe9iD1atTC6dfHMr8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   26888208 26508120 25408019 25008035 24708113=20
            26428217=20

=3D =3D =3D
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