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"My mind's made up, don't confuse me with facts."  I hope one of the
examples I set is being open-minded enough to be a little skeptical and
question representations made to us.  Things like "NEW BULL MARKET".
This morning I heard one of the Congresscritters say, "We need to do
this for energy independence.  Most of the oil is controlled by
countries who are NOT our friends."

This morning, as I was volunteering in the park district garden, I began
to wonder if that made any sense, or was Mr. Congresscritter trying to
blow smoke up my fanny because his agenda was more important to him than
the truth?

With prices at record highs, wouldn't you be selling as much as you
could and laughing all the way to the bank?  OPEC quotas have always
been one of those traditions "more in the breach than the observance".
OPEC's pumping 27.7M bbl/day, just raised it .5M bbl, and says maybe
they could go up another .5M bbl.  We're sucking up about a third of
that (see below).

Would you not sell your product to Fred for cash on the barrel-head
because he once insulted your sister?  I doubt it, but even if you're
that crazy, I'm not!  I'll buy your product and sell it to Fred.  Open
market commodities, like oil, are fully fungible--anybody with the money
can buy it.  Does America really have any trouble buying the oil it
needs?  That makes no sense.

When I got home this afternoon I asked Mr Google about "2004 crude oil
imports by country".  The first page was from the Energy Information
Administration of the Department of Energy that Mr Congresscritter gets
information from.  Here's the top 15 countries we import from:

        Country             Jan-Dec 2004
        Canada                  1611    Thousand Bbl/day
        Mexico                  1597
        Saudi Arabia            1494
        Venezuela               1294
        Nigeria                 1062
        Iraq                     651
        Angola                   306
        Kuwait                   241
        United Kindom            235
        Equador                  228
        Algeria                  214
        Russia                   150
        Norway                   146
        Gabon                    142
        Colombia                 138

Now just which of those countries are threatening us?  Canada?  Mexico?
We still have friends in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia from Gulf War I.  What
the heck is Mr Congresscritter talking about?  Nobody's threatening our
sources of supply.

Now, that adds up to 9.51M bbl/day.  If their best projections are
correct, how much of our "foreign dependence" would ANWR relieve?  If'n
we were smart, we'd use up theirs and keep ours in reserve!

I'm sorry, I think the agenda has gotten in the way of rational decision
making.  Congresscritters, politicians in general, don't have to be
intelligent, they just have to be electable.

I remember when the speculators drove all of SE Asia into near
bankruptcy, speculating in the currencies.  I also remember Enron and
manufactured energy shortages.  I think they're doing it again in oil.
The speculators are making a short term killing and we're greasing their
pockets.

Oh, the market today?  It was up a bit, but volume fell a bit to only
+2% above average.  It hardly mattered.  I don't see any reason to
change my grumpy mood about the market.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     _|__     _|__     <___     ___|     03/11
 __<_     _|__     __|_     _<__     _<__     ___<     03/14
 _<__     _|__     _|__     _<__     |___     ___<     03/15
 _<__     _|__     _|__     __<_     <___     __<_     03/16
 ____     _|__     __<_     |___     __<_     03/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/15/05 S&P:    1198
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... In a clear field you can disk forever.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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