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The market closed Monday at 1223.13.  It opened at 1223.42, but jumped
to 1227 immediately.  It rose above 1229 within the first 5 minutes,
setting the tone for the day.  This is unusual when we're waiting for an
FOMC announcement.

Oil ran over $64/bbl early in the day, though it closed lower.  (Why
aren't prices still reacting negatively to new highs in oil anymore,
eh?)

When the Fed's announcement was released, along with the expected 25
basis-point raise, and the statement was about as expected, prices
jumped a bit, then sunk, and recovered to close about where they were.
Volume increased modestly, to +4% above average.

The Fed's statement mentioned higher energy prices, noting inflation
still seems "under control".  I didn't see any report that it noted the
increasing employment.

Now, my support line yesterday was at 1220, so if prices turn around and
recover now the 1223 close could reinforce the appearance that prices
"bounced off" the support line again.  That wouldn't be bad.  However,
I'm still a disbeliever.  I'll hold what I've got while they're going
up, but I've still got cash on the side and it's going to stay there.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __     __|_     __|_     ___|     08/03
 _|__     __     __|_     _|__     ___|     08/04
 __     <___     ___|     08/05
 _<__     <___     __|_     _<__     <___     ___|     08/08
 __<_     <___     __|_     __<_     <___     ___<     08/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Positive: mistaken at the top of your voice
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