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Prices opened higher again, gaining about 10pts by noon.  But that was
as good as it got.  Today, according to reports, the Street DID pay
attention to oil prices.  Crude futures closed at $64.90/bbl around 2PM.
So the morning rally failed, closing down modestly on higher volume,
+14% above average.

Would it make a difference whether the morning or afternoon, or
"up-volume" vs "down-volume", made the greatest
contribution to total
volume?  Well, perhaps, if one were splitting hairs, or was day-trading.
What matters to me is that the market had a nice morning going and broke
down.  It doesn't seem to me that the Bulls had the courage of their
convictions.  I remain a skeptic.

Instead of ignoring everything that went before and seeing this as a
rally climb from 1154 in the middle of May, I'm seeing this as an
uncertain breakout above a 1214 resistance line all year long.  The
60pts between I discount.  The market was just returning to positions it
had already held several times.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     __     __|_     _|__     ___|     08/04
 __     <___     ___|     08/05
 _<__     <___     __|_     _<__     <___     ___|     08/08
 __<_     <___     __|_     __<_     <___     ___<     08/09
 _|__     <___     __|_     __<_     _|__     ___<     08/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... When woman go wrong, men go right after them.
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