ACUS48 KWNS 020833
SWOD48
SPC AC 020832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into
the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front
will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move
into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging
southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models
forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the
middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in
the process.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday.
Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be
sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as
the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the
anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe
potential, should any materialize.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some
destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon.
As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a
major question. Severe potential remains uncertain.

..Wendt.. 10/02/2024

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