ACUS48 KWNS 010821
SWOD48
SPC AC 010819

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Recent model guidance has come into better agreement with regard to
the upper-level pattern this weekend into early next week. As zonal
flow begins to break down this Friday, an upper-level trough will
dig southeastward and strengthen. Though conditional and uncertain,
some severe threat could develop in association with this trough.
After this trough exits the East Coast, ridging aloft and at the
surface is expected to develop in its wake.

On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest. Some
moisture return is possible on the western flank of the surface
ridge, but the quality of this moisture is highly uncertain. Wind
fields would support organized storms in parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley, but predictability remains quite low.

For Sunday, the upper-level trough will continue southeastward with
some intensification expected, especially towards Monday morning. A
similar setup to Saturday will occur in parts of the upper Ohio
Valley region. The strongest shear will likely be post-frontal, but
some stronger storms could develop along the front during the
afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the boundary remains a question
and will be the key to severe potential.

A strong mid-level jet will dig into the Mid-Atlantic Monday
morning. Given the misaligned timing of the trough with diurnal
heating, it is not clear that sufficient buoyancy will be present
for an organized severe threat.

..Wendt.. 10/01/2024

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