ACUS02 KWNS 291657
SWODY2
SPC AC 291656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Southern VA and the Carolinas...
A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will slowly move
eastward over the central/southern Appalachians on Monday.
Thermodynamic profiles across the region suggest convection should
remain shallow due to relatively warm temperatures at mid/upper
levels, especially along/south of the quasi-stationary front arcing
from central/southern NC to southern WV. Overall thunderstorm
coverage should be quite isolated.

On the southeast flank of the trough, mid-level southwesterlies will
remain enhanced from GA to southern NC. Adequate deep-layer shear
with moderate straight-line hodograph elongation should be present
near the southeast NC vicinity of the front. But poor mid-level
lapse rates (around 4-5 C/km) will temper hail growth.

...FL Peninsula...
Rich low-level moisture combined with ascent along the sea breeze
should promote isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Weak shear will limit organized severe potential.

...Southwest...
Limited mid-level moisture within the upper-level ridge may be
adequate for very isolated thunderstorms from the southern Rockies
to the Mogollon Rim. Consensus of model soundings suggest buoyancy
should be scant at most, with high-based, low-topped convection.
Gusty, erratic surface winds are possible within dry microbursts.

..Grams.. 09/29/2024

$$

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