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Well, the market took off early for a "noon-time quickie" but by 1ET it
was all over and prices were as they were, slightly underwater, into the
close.  It was definitely a "one-humped camel" sort of day.  Volume
increased a little, to just over 0% above average.

We should never "fight the tape" as the old Street aphorism goes.  Yet
there are demonstrably true but unappreciated long term factors in the
economy that should play a part in our strategy, as long as they remain
demonstrably true and until they can be discounted.

One of them occurred to me the other day when the Labor Department
reported on productivity gains, and we got a pop in market prices.  I
know Greenspan & the Fed watch productivity.  But to what extent is that
what we want to watch?  Let me apply a "reductio ad absurdum" argument.

Imagine we automated everything possible in the country.  Productivity,
the value of good and services produced per unit of labor, would go
through the roof.  But the result for Americans now unemployed would be
catastrophic!  I think this is demonstrably true because in effect by
offshoring manufacturing to cheaper labor and importing cheaper finished
goods, as if they had been made by automation, that's what we have done.
This may be how we're going to get by in the post-Boomer economy of
fewer workers, but the retired Boomers have to be supported somehow.
And Boomers vote!  No, I think we need to be looking for a more
sustainable economic goal than productivity.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     ___     _|__     __>_     __>_     12/02
 _|__     ___     ___     12/05
 __|_     ___     __     12/06
 __     __     12/07
 __     ___     12/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Stop it!  Now take your tagline and go to bed.
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