ACUS03 KWNS 281826
SWODY3
SPC AC 281825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will drift east over the
central/southern Appalachians. Similar to prior days, a confined
belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will remain present from
eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in
the East will remain quite diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible, mainly during Monday afternoon, centered on parts of
central/eastern NC/VA. Weak mid/upper-level lapse rates and nebulous
forcing for ascent will remain limiting factors to storm intensity.

Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass and lift from sea
breeze boundaries will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms
in a weakly sheared environment across the Florida Peninsula.

In the West, potential for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms
should shift southeast from the eastern Great Basin on Sunday to the
southern Rockies and Mogollon Rim on Monday. Scant buoyancy and
nebulous large-scale ascent suggest thunderstorm probabilities are
only around 10 percent.

..Grams.. 09/28/2024

$$

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