ACUS02 KWNS 281645
SWODY2
SPC AC 281643

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Eastern Great Basin...
Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday
afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A
low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast
should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the
Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of
thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy
will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large
surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst
potential and locally strong gusts.

...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across
KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast.
Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent
amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such,
instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger
mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas.
Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates
aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less,
yielding negligible severe concern.

..Grams.. 09/28/2024

$$

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