ACUS02 KWNS 271702
SWODY2
SPC AC 271700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene
and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH
Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is
forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath
the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically
around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite
the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles
will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not
anticipated.

Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as
temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime
heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon
thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak
shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low.

Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and
extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in
place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near
0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners
vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection
is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but
forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough
for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis.
Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%.

..Mosier.. 09/27/2024

$$

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