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The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which analysis
over time has shown tend to move in advance of the economy, fell a more
than expected 0.5% today.  Historically, they've been trending lower for
the past year, from 116 and change to 114 and change.  That's still well
into positive territory, but the trend isn't encouraging.  There was a
slight bump up last winter, but it was just noticable, not even back to
the summer's level.

Oil traded over $60/bbl today, so the market was lower until the last
couple hours.  There was some improvement after that, but it still
closed marginally lower.  Volume returned to "normal", -5% below
average.

I'm not terribly surprised at the oil action--more angst over this and
that, speculation on next winter.  We often see the market move to new
highs that way, up to play with new highs temporarily, then retreating
for a while, and then moving higher yet again.  It's similar to climbing
Everest, portage up to setup and stock a higher camp, then back to a
lower or even base camp.  When everybody's ready they try for the
summit.  A lot of the back and forth in the market bumping up against
resistance serves a similar function, to alert investors who want to
participate that there's some interest in pushing through the
resistance.

The other thing is: I find it distressing to hear the talk, "Gee, with
oil this high, industry isn't screaming they can't stand it.  Maybe it
can tolerate even more."  Hello!  How many fuel dependent airlines have
to crash before you can hear the screams?  Shipped anything lately and
paid a fuel surcharge?  One thing the Fed is finding is that there is
some pricing ability, meaning business can pass some of the increased
costs on to consumers.  Maybe we should be the ones the analysts are
listening to, like the sales of gas-guzzler SUV's.

Oil is linked to economic growth.  And I remember what happened in '98
when speculation in their currencies nearly killed the Asian Tigers.
This speculation in oil isn't the natural functioning of a healthy free
market--it's more akin to rape, pillage and plunder.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_          06/14
 __|_          06/15
 __>_     _     ___>     06/16
 __>_     _     ___>     06/17
 _>__     >___     __|_     _     06/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/17/05 S&P:    1173
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... If ignorance isn't bliss, I don't know what is.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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