ACUS11 KWNS 271348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271348=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-271545-

Mesoscale Discussion 2124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...Southern to central/eastern NC and southern VA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 688...

Valid 271348Z - 271545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat is expected to peak into early afternoon
across southern, eastern, and central North Carolina, into a part of
southern Virginia. This threat will abruptly end in the wake of
ongoing band passage associated with Tropical Storm Helene.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing within a roughly 300-km
long convective band, with the inland portion approaching the
Raleigh-Durham Metro Area and the trailing portion to along the
NC/SC border area. Individual cells are largely transient and
progressing north at 45-55 kts. The overall band will rapidly sweep
across much of central and eastern North Carolina into midday before
entering southern VA. Low-level hodographs are currently maximized,
with 0-1 km SRH around 500-600 m2/s2 per LTX/RAX VWP data. These are
expected to shrink during the afternoon, suggesting the tornado
threat will wane later today. Boundary-layer heating will remain
limited by pervasive cloud coverage downstream, but even minor
insolation amid mid 70s surface dew points should provide enough
boost to increase daytime tornado potential. In the wake of the
band, substantial mid-level warming/drying will curtail additional
development and the threat will be confined along/ahead of the
ongoing band.

..Grams.. 09/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7hN1UgEOzWWMpNU5OuPei20a3cuPUbrpQhNh_WHswRb0NzSwEoKNmxSYpY6POd5fyTI6zQhgj=
_kCH-u1hVlh11OkEYs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   35907983 36187990 36707984 37377940 37507891 37387841
            37027759 35977679 35177666 34627648 33777797 33827883
            35217924 35907983=20


=3D =3D =3D
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