wrote in message
> P=S R^N
>
> P= probability for a new species to be created in one generation
> S= size of population
> R= mutation rate
> N= the number of mutations required
>
That's mathematically OK assuming a homogenous interbreeding population, and
an all or nothing speciation event. In fact what we see is that populations
are divided into demes with limited contact, and that there can be barriers
to mating that are not absolute.
The hawthorn / apple maggot fly is an example. These flies mate on the same
plant species as upon which they feed, so there is a separation into
hawthorn- and the recently-evolved apple-feeding populations. However
post-mating reproductive barriers have not yet evolved.
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