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"It was a tale of two sessions", to coin a phrase.  Before midafternoon
trading hugged the line, much as it has been.  But then they released
the Fed's "Beige Book" that will be the basis of the FOMC's August 9th
meeting.  Things looked fairly rosey, in a subdued sort of way, so the
Street took courage.  Prices closed up modestly again, though on
slightly less volume, just +3% above average.

Did they forget something?  Well, maybe.  It doesn't look like these
numbers will discourage the FOMC from raising rates any time soon.  Yes,
the Fed has been on a steady course, so that should be a given, but
there are those on the Street who get spooked by the prospect of the Fed
taking their "easy money" punch-bowl away.

Prices are continuing their halting way higher, and volume has generaly
been higher since Spring than in the previous 15 months.  Those are good
confirmatory signs.  But until that Oscillator gets off the region of
the zero-line, I'm not going to believe it.  Besides it's Summer.  Main
Street is on vacation.

Could the Street's strategy be to sneak prices higher over the summer,
and then in the Fall stampede Main Street to jump on the train before it
leaves them behind?  Main Street buys stock from Wall Street at higher
prices, and then what?  The markets may not be manipulated as much as
they were before the SEC, but believe it, there are still games being
played with investors' emotions and it costs them dearly.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     __>_     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     07/21
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___|     07/22
 __     __|_     _>__     _<__     ___|     07/25
 ___     _<__     ___|     07/26
 __|_     __|_     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     07/27

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Look on every exit as being an entrance somewhere else.
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