ACUS03 KWNS 270712
SWODY3
SPC AC 270711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to
weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward
across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the
surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into
parts of the Carolinas.

A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the
Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into
central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may
experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds
will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or
two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic
profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences
(i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts
will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears
unlikely at this time.

..Wendt.. 09/27/2024

$$

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