ACUS02 KWNS 261650
SWODY2
SPC AC 261648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF
THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible
into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene.

...Carolinas/VA...
TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z
Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This
cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further
absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South.
The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical
moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the
start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon.
Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should
still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon.

A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely
centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border
area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the
morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and
southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along
the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry
slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection,
the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north.
Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should
result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day.

..Grams.. 09/26/2024

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux