In a message of  to James Dunlop (), you wrote:
 JD> Somehow, I don't think the fourth best first baseman in the 
 JD> American League should be an MVP candidate.  Thomas, McGwire and 
 JD> Vaughn are all clearly better than Palmeiro.  This says something 
 JD> about those three, since Palmeiro is one heck of a player.
 AH> The difference in this case is that Palmeiro's season may propel his 
eam
 AH> into the playoffs, which can't be said of the other three.  Also, I 
on't
 AH> agree that those three are "clearly better" than Palmeiro this season.
Ed argued about Vaughn, and I'll agree that it's close.  The others?  Not 
close to me at all.
First off, let me agree that Palmeiro's defense is better than the others, 
but so what?  A first baseman's defense doesn't make much of a difference 
overall.  You'd be hard pressed to show a significant advantage.
Offense.  I have this week's BBW around here somewhere.
          BA   SLG  OBA AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS  HOME ROAD
Palmeiro .289 .549 .384 550  96 159 37  2 34 128  85  82  7  0  .283 .296
Vaughn   .316 .571 .415 557 106 176 26  1 38 122  88 136  2  0  .359 .275
Thomas   .347 .592 .462 461  95 160 23  0 30 115  99  62  1  1  .324 .368
McGwire  .324 .758 .472 376  96 122 19  0 48 100 100 101  0  0  .325 .324
Vaughn, by far, has done better at home than away (Fenway, in spite of 
whatever wind tests are done, is still a good hitter's park).  Possibly 
enough that Palmeiro's better.  But Thomas and McGwire?  I'd be hard pressed 
to see ANY advantage that Palmeiro has over them.  The only advantage would 
be in durability.
(Back to home/away advantages for a minute, BBW only puts in batting averages 
for home and road games, the splits are listed in the table above.)
Regarding the MVP arguments, Thomas's season "might propel his team into the 
playoffs" as well, and McGwire was one of the main reasons the A's lasted as 
long as they did, doing far better than anybody thought they would.  Even 
Vaughn's team is in the hunt right now.
My MVP argument is always "who can be more valuable than the best player in 
the league?" so my MVP choice will always be the player I feel is the best 
one in the league that season.  But if you include the "best player on a 
playoff contender", shouldn't a candidate be at least the best player on his 
team?  Palmeiro isn't.  I'd be hard pressed to call Palmeiro better than 
Brady Anderson or Roberto Alomar this season.  I think you're thinking about 
Palmeiro a bit too much as a home town fan.  But I doubt there are too many 
people anywhere who would trade Palmeiro for Will Clark (Texas's mistake, and 
Baltimore's good fortune.)
Rafael Palmeiro is a championship quality player (readers of Bill James's 
work will recognize the phrase), but still is the third or fourth best at his 
position in the league, and third best player on his team.  This translates 
into two "facts":  the first basemen in the American League are exceptional, 
and the Orioles have some mighty fine players.
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