From: Adam 

Phil Payne wrote:
>> But hey what would CIGS know.
>
> I now strongly suspect - what he's been told to know.
>
> I think he was deliberately used as an ablative to test the water with the
> opinions of others.
>
> If initial reaction had been adverse, he'd have been pensioned within a
> week.  As it wasn't, his views have been espoused by those too cowardly to
> express them personally.
>
>


Look....some reality:

A) We get get the F*ck out of dodge. Mostly the south is now controlled by
the locals & frankly the next major burst of violence will be shia on
shia cleaning house wrt "there can be only one" etc. We do not
want to/ can not take sides in that.

If we are still there when that happens it may be politically uncomfortable
to stand idly by while "human rights abuses" happen but the
alternative is worse. If we are not there then we can wail away
/wring our hands etc with the rest of the liberal democracies.

B) Consider the diff twixt "the" & "our". As in:

i) We will only leave when "our" job is done vs ii We will only
leave when "the" job is done.


(i) allows us to leave toot sweet as our job is now done (ii) means we have
to keep human sacrificial offerings on the ground being sacrificed till the
yanks decide to up sticks play the bugle etc.

My guess is that (ii) is becoming increasingly untenable as "your son
died bravely providing Mr Bush with political cover for his own
incompetence"  is a difficult sell to a grieving parent.

So my guess is that the message has been pre-packaged as you state with a
dual message:

1) To the Yanks: Time is up d00dz. We will keep a battalion doing the
"desert base overwatch + political cover for the US" deal so long
as this in no way involves going back into an Iraqi BUA unless actually
supporting the Iraqi mil (& proably only the mil given the
...interesting nature of some Iraqi police).....but "our" job as
specified by "handing over to the Iraqi gov, creating a credible Iraqi
security forces etc" is done.

2) To the Gov as a message from the MoD which is "Afghanistan is doable
& is more important but we can't do both & crunch time is approaching".

  One game is unwinnable via the UK mil (or indeed any mil but the local
mil) & playing both games may/will mean losing both games

My guess is that the upper echelons of both UK Mil & Pol Ritahar
Khandahar more than they Ritahar Basra & frankly do not want to be in
dodge when it's Badr vs Sadr & 3'rd parties come looking for a sheriff.

Adam

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