ACUS02 KWNS 260534
SWODY2
SPC AC 260532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern
Virginia on Friday.

...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic...

The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern
periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the
central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA
through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be
ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift
northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly
north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will
quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or
early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping
low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the
region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F
(resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a
tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective
bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field,
strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible.

...TN/OH Valley vicinity...

Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians
westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks
north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over
the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the
transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective
processes, precluding severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2024

$$

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