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echo: stock_market
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from: Paul Rogers
date: 2005-11-02 18:27:00
subject: Market Action

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Could it be?  Could it be a day of follow-thru for the Bulls?  Igonre
all the "news", Time-Warner was positive, crude was down because
inventories were up, M&A again, yada, yada, yada.  That's just the way
the Street wants you to rationalize what's happening as obfuscation.
The big picture is: a lot of mutual fund managers are starting a new
fiscal year!  If I was them I'd want a few quick profits in my vest
pocket.  Besides, they know that Main Street is going to be messing
about with its portfolios in a couple months, doing some tax-loss
selling and making some deposits in pension funds.  "Let's have some
higher priced inventory to sell them--they won't mind.  They'll feel
better if prices are higher."

Has it ever occurred to you that when I call this "Market Action" I mean
not only the market of stocks as represented by the S&P500, NYSE, etc.,
but ALSO Wall Street's activities to market investing to the public?

Prices worked their way higher all day, nary a doubt or correction to be
seen.  The 12pts gained was nearly enough to be significant on its own,
13pts, but volume jumped to +15% above average.  I call that an
"Accumulation" day.

Note average daily volume as I calculate it continues to rise sharply,
and is now at 2330Ms!  Keep that number in mind as you listen to the
day's statistics.

I guess Monday's Buy signal wasn't just a flash in the pan.  At least
prices have once again gotten above the 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving
averages and that's considered a good sign.  It makes "technicians" more
willing to buy.

Well, we'll see how it goes.  I'm not convinced there's a trend yet.  I
wouldn't be surprized to see another "retest" of 1175-1180, even if the
Bulls are ready to take charge.  It's their way of stocking-up with
inventory.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     ___     _|__     _<__     10/27
 ____     __<_     _<__     10/28
 __>_     __     __>_     _|__     10/31
 _>__     __     __>_     _|__     11/01
 __>_     __     ___>     _|__     11/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... NO! It's MY keyboard! Get AWAY! Get your OWN!!!! GEEZ!!!
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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