SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14  ARLP014
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 6, 2018
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

We only saw sunspots over two days of this past week, March 30 and 31 when the
daily sunspot numbers were 11 and 12.  There were no sunspots during the
previous week, so the average daily sunspot
number rose from 0 to 3.3.

Average daily solar flux changed from 68.2 to 68.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A index
declining from 10.6 to 5, and average mid-latitude A index going from 8.9 to 4.

The averages for solar flux and A index shown at the end of last week's
bulletin were incorrect, and have been corrected above. Thanks to AA2F for
discovering my error.

Predicted solar flux is 67 on April 6 to 12, 68 on April 13 to 22, 69 on April
23 to May 6, 68 from May 7 to 19 and 69 on May 7.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on April 6, 5 on April 7 to 9, then on April
10, 15 on April 11 and 12, 18 on April 13 and 14, then 15, 10, 5 and 8 on April
15 to 18, 15 on April 19 to 21, then 12 and 10 on April 22 and 23, then 5 on
April 24 to May 6, then 10, 15 and 20 on May 7 to 9.  18 on May 10 and 11, then
15, 10, 5 and 10 on May 12 to 15, then 15 on May 16 to 18 and 12 and 10 on May
19 and 20.



F. K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April
6 to May 1, 2018.

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on April 8 and 9, 24 and 25, 27 to 29, May 1
Mostly quiet on April 19, 26, 30
Quiet to unsettled on April 7, 10, 16 to 18, 23
Quiet to active on April 6, 11, 13, 15, 20 to 22
Active to disturbed on April 12, 14

Solar wind will intensify on April (6 to 8,) 10 to 18, 23 to 25, (27 to 30)

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.



Mark Bell, K3MSB of Airville, Pennsylvania reported on April 5:

"I've been trying to work Australia for quite a while on 160M. During the
current 160M season I've heard bits and pieces of calls from VK land, and
occasionally a complete call, but nothing strong
enough to work.

Saturday morning March 31 I was on 160M around 1030Z. I saw Ron VK3IO spotted
and tuned to his frequency and was astounded at his signal strength!  He was at
nice 559, almost armchair copy as the
saying goes.  I was even more stunned that he answered my first call and
received a 579 from him at 1045Z, which is about 35 minutes before my sunrise. 
At 1101Z I had the pleasure of working Luke
VK3HJ, who was not as strong as Ron but putting in a very nice signal.  My
receive antenna is a 200 foot RBOG (Reversible Beverage On Ground) oriented
NW/SE and my transmit antenna is an INV-L.

On Wednesday 4 April 160M was pretty dead around 1030Z so I started calling CQ.
 A few KHz above me, Jon AA1K was also calling CQ.  Phil VK6GX spotted Jon at
1024Z and myself at 1033Z.  Later I emailed Phil and he said while he heard us,
we were both too weak for a QSO.

Phil also stated that openings from VK6 to the East Coast 'have been few and
far between in the last few years.  Signals often don't make it across the
Nullarbor Plain to VK6.' "

Interesting article on the history of solar photography:

https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/snapshots-of-the-sun-since-1845



> From Tamitha Skov:

"Outside of the bright region this week being a lot quieter and weaker than we
hoped, we have a remnant coronal hole sending small pockets of fast solar wind
our way.  This is good news for aurora
photographers at high latitudes, but it also brings a little more zing to the
ionosphere for amateur radio operators and emergency responders suffering with
low solar flux right now.

Radio propagation on Earth's day side will likely remain poor, but you might be
surprised how a slight bit of activity can really perk up the radio bands at
night and in the gray line.  GPS users should also enjoy better than average
GPS conditions on Earth's night side, even at low latitudes where night time is
often troublesome for GPS.

But don't expect these conditions to last for more than a few days. Next week
we will be dealing with a more serious chance of reaching solar storm
conditions, when a much bigger coronal hole rotates into the Earth-strike
zone."

https://youtu.be/q5hvAqXiVL4



For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for March 29 through April 4, 2018 were 0, 11, 12, 0, 0, 0, and
0, with a mean of 3.3.  10.7 cm flux was 69, 68.8, 69, 69, 68.4, 67.8, and
68.5, with a mean of 68.6.  Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 5, 5,
4, and 5, with a mean of 5.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 6, 4,
4, 3, and 4, with a mean of 4.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... Am I going to die, doctor?  Trust me, it's the last thing you'll do.
---