ACUS48 KWNS 230843
SWOD48
SPC AC 230842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast
on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently
over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of
this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day
4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat
anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability.
However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of
an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general
appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor
lapse rates/instability.

..Leitman.. 09/23/2024

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