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Today's market action makes no sense.  And that's a good clue that it's
one of those snap-backs.  Prices went from falling 120% of a significant
change yesterday, to climbing 170% of the significant change today.  If
we made yesterday disappear, compared to Tuesday today's prices closed
up about 50% of a significant change--still good, but reasonable.
Volume increased modestly, up to +18% above average.  My formula was
helpless and those numbers mean it was an "accumulation" day.  But I'd
be careful about reading too much into this crazy behavior.

The news on the Street, and Washington, wasn't even all that good.
Greenspan testified again that the twin deficits represent significant
threats to the economy.  He advocated spending control rather than
increased taxes, but being stuck in the Afghan and Iraq soiree's for the
duration, I'm not sure where that's going to come from.  I suppose the
Administration still wants to make all the tax give aways permanent.

It's hard for any Administration, and especially the Congresscritters,
to manage belt tightening in responsible ways.  I'm going to assume
Greenspan is right, the twin deficits are going to dominate the future
economy, and that nobody inside the Beltway is going to do the right
thing at the right time.  They'll do the wrong thing, kicking and
screaming.  I'm not sure what sorts of investments are going to profit
best in such an environment, but I'm going to try to find out.  It's a
matter of preparation.  I'm pretty sure it's coming.  I want to be ready
to do the right thing.  (hint, hint)

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __     _|__     ___>     <___     _|__     04/15
 ____     _|__     __>_     _<__     _|__     04/18
 ____     _|__     __>_     _|__     _<__     04/19
 _     _|__     __>_     _>__     _<__     04/20
 ___>     __>_     _|__     __>_     __>_     _<__     04/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/08/05 S&P:    1181
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Life is sexually transmitted and terminal. Always.
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