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Today Ford announced it's restructuring plan.  It will close 14 plants &
facilities and lay off 30,000 workers over the next 6 years.  Bad news,
right?  Well, the Street didn't seem to think so.  The S&P was positive
all day, albeit in a very narrow range of only 6pts.  It closed in about
the middle of the range.  Volume retreated to only +5% above average.

Well, I think it IS bad news.  Ford WAS losing money, and this might
save the company.  But think "outside the box".  Is a smaller Ford a
good thing for the economy?

What's the liklihood those plants are going to go into production on
other manufactured goods?  That diminishes American manufacturing and
exports, exacerbating the balance of payments deficit.

What's the liklihood those 30,000 workers are going to find similar
high-paying jobs that will continue to support their current standard of
living?  Remember 2/3 of the economy is consumer driven.

This is another example of companies in trouble self-cannibalizing by
deep cost cutting, by making themselves less capable, less competitive
companies.  I don't see companies in trouble expanding their TOP line,
increasing their marketing and pushing out "best in the world" products.

And finally, it makes me fundamentally question the limits to growth.
Maybe the Club of Rome got the answers all wrong, but they were asking a
relevant question.  Is it possible for the world to grow itself out of
all economic problems?  How much growth capacity is available for Ford &
GM?  China is EXporting cars.  The world seems to be getting along with
only two international aircraft manufacturers.  Isn't it fundamentally
wrong that "Oregon Roses" can't compete in our own markets with flowers
flown in from South America?

No, "something is rotten in Denmark", except it isn't.  Denmark is doing
pretty well.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __     __|_     __|_     __     01/17
 __     __|_     __     01/18
 __     01/19
      01/20
 ___     _|__     ___|     01/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/20/06 S&P:    1261
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... A tisket, a tasket, a condom or a casket?!?
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