From: "Rich Gauszka" 

I read the graphs similar to you. Dem controlled House - Republican
controlled Senate ( caveat I am not a trader )

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_congress06_jpg.cfm


"John Beamish"  wrote in message
news:op.th9lkmwfm6tn4t{at}dellblack.wlfdle.phub.net.cable.rogers.com...
How does one read the graphs?

For example, this one:

This is the market:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/WebEx/marketinfo_english.cfm?Market_ID=147

This is the graph:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_SENATE06.cfm

As I interpret it:
~70% probability that Rep will hold the senate; ~25% Dem will hold the
Senate; ~5% probability that Rep will (hold and) gain seats in the Senate.

(That is, btw, the result I am expecting:  a Rep controlled Senate.)

On Mon, 30 Oct 2006 19:25:38 -0500, Rich Gauszka  wrote:

> FWIW - The Iowa Electronic Markets have a reputation for being fairly
> accurate in Election Markets/Trading
>
> 'The Iowa Electronic Markets are operated by faculty at the University of
> Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business as part of our research and
> teaching mission. These markets are small-scale, real-money futures
> markets
> where contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as
> elections.'
>
> http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/
>
> http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/WebEx/marketinfo_english.cfm?Market_ID=145
>
>

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