ACUS03 KWNS 160712
SWODY3
SPC AC 160711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Great Plains...
In the wake of extensive convective overturning on D2 across the
High Plains, remnant outflows should be present over the lower
plains as convection decays Wednesday morning. The northern High
Plains shortwave trough and parent mid-level circulation should
become vertically stacked with the attendant surface cyclone over
eastern MT. This will slow its advance considerably on Wednesday, as
it eventually drifts towards far southeast SK.

Where a confined plume of moderate buoyancy may develop on Wednesday
afternoon from the Mid-MO Valley to the TX Panhandle, 500-mb
temperatures will be relatively warm, from -4 to -8 C southwest to
northeast. This will foster weak 700-500 mb lapse rates. Beyond
weakly convergent convective outflows, large-scale ascent appears
nebulous, and convective signals across most models seem limited and
mesoscale-focused. While low-end supercell wind profiles could
develop during the late afternoon to early evening, the
aforementioned limiting factors suggest severe hail/wind potential
may be subdued and very localized. As such, will defer to later
outlooks for any level 1-MRGL risk highlights.

..Grams.. 09/16/2024

$$

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