AWUS01 KWNH 150219
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-150816-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1018 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...Extreme Southwest
GA...Portions of the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150216Z - 150816Z

SUMMARY...Locally extreme rainfall rates associated with areas of
nearly stationary thunderstorms over far southeast AL, extreme
southwest GA and portions of the FL Panhandle will likely continue
over the next several hours. Additional areas of flash flooding
are likely, and locally considerable pockets of flash flooding
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows areas of nearly
stationary thunderstorms over far southeast AL and portions of the
FL Panhandle. The convection is associated with an axis of
relatively focused moisture convergence situated near a front and
wave of low pressure which is coinciding with the nose of moderate
instability characterized by MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.
There is also a belt of stronger mid-level west-northwest flow
aloft crossing the region which is yielding as much as 30 to 40
kts of effective bulk shear.

PWs are on the order of 1.8 to 2.0 inches and this coupled with
the instability and shear magnitudes has already been yielding
rainfall rates as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour, and some sustenance
of these rates are expected over at least the next few hours given
expectations of the environment remaining conducive for convection
to persist, at least going through the 06Z time frame.

Recent HRRR runs are quite aggressive with the rainfall totals
over the next few hours with as much as 3 to 6+ inches of
additional rain forecast going through 06Z. Given the slow
cell-motions and wet antecedent conditions, these additional rains
are likely to result in additional areas of flash flooding, some
which may be capable of producing considerable impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!95fCRRe19pVbRKJKKcPr30Qh9Nh2_wR0xnIqT2aYynbw4cqb5L_cMzWagRFGTYwv3Mg2=
3d9NjaDa-xmh7M1yJdpZjQQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31858561 31548502 30778469 30068444 29778469=20
            29788528 30318580 31198627 31668603=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux