AWUS01 KWNH 120303
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0992
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1102 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Areas affected...Eastern LA...Central and Southern MS...Southwest
AL...Far Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120300Z - 120900Z

SUMMARY...Extremely heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm
Francine will continue to promote numerous to widespread areas of
life-threatening flash flooding heading into the overnight hours,
which may include considerable to locally catastrophic impacts.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Francine at 03Z (10pm CDT) is located
35 miles west-northwest of New Orleans, LA and is moving northeast
at 16 mph. While the storm is continuing to rapidly weaken as it
moves farther inland, there continues to be some very strong
convection around the northeast quadrant of the circulation
including what is left of the storm's eyewall. Rainfall rates
continue to be locally very high and on the order of 2 to 3
inches/hour. Very strong moisture convergence and a nose of
moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg continues to
focus around the eastern semicircle of the storm, and this will
likely help to sustain the strong and organized character of the
convection for the next 3 to 6 hours.

However, by later in the night, the storm is expected to begin
attaining some baroclinic features due to very strong shear, dry
air entrainment and increasing interaction with a frontal zone.
This should favor the rainfall shield of Francine becoming more
asymmetric, with heavy rainfall situated increasingly poleward of
the center of circulation into areas of southwest and central MS,
and also within some strong banding features east of the center
where there will still be strong moisture convergence and the
transport of stronger instability from the Gulf of Mexico. Some of
these stronger convective bands are expected to impact areas of
southern MS, southwest AL and potentially the far western FL
Panhandle.

Rainfall rates immediately ahead of the storm track and within the
stronger bands east of the center will likely still be capable of
reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour overnight, and some additional storm
totals associated with Francine going through 09Z (4AM CDT) are
expected to reach 3 to 6 inches with isolated heavier amounts
possible.

There has already been a Flash Flood Emergency issued for a
portion of the I-10 corridor in southeast LA, and additional
numerous to widespread areas of life-threatening flash flooding
can be expected overnight along the path of Francine. This may
include considerable to locally catastrophic impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-dIjc5ed-xJmsmjSDfG4_21BBPCA0zs5h6HtqjxURAFDGdci27prJs2ZHKJ6joxNBsz4=
IBzYLRAzuV4PCbGW7xweIFk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32258918 31908815 31108726 30568706 30248742=20
            30238828 30098903 29858963 29889073 30519117=20
            31669066 32159003=20

=3D =3D =3D
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