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The market was basically flat again until 2PM.  Then crude closed above
$75/bbl.  (The futures price of unleaded gasoline, basically the basic
blend, bulk price at the refinery, closed at $2.24/gal.)  Prices fell
8pts over the next hour or so, but made it almost back to the line by
the close.  Volume slackened a bit to +10% above average.

Ok, so it's gouging.  So it's largely a function of Ahmedinejad and Bush
both trying to talk tough, playing chicken.  So what!  We could see
$5/gal at the pump, quickly.  And that IS going to impact the economy.

Look, there's that, and the Bird Flu.  Sure, the media has played-up the
apocalyptic possibilities.  But they ARE possibilities.  If the worst
develops, this becomes a repeat of 1917-18 with a pathogen that's 50-70%
lethal instead of 1-2% lethal, there's probably nothing we can do.  But
it could get worse, without getting as bad as it could.  Even if it
killed 50 million world-wide, much less than predicted but in raw
numbers if not percentages roughly equivalent to 1917-18, there would
still be a major impact on world economies.

I'm not suggesting we all rush to safety in cash, but we ought to have
some plans!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _>__     _|__     _<__     |___     __<_     04/17
 ___>     _>__     __|_     ____     __<_     04/18
 __>_     _>__     __|_     ____     __<_     04/19
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __|_     _>__     __<_     04/20
 _>__     _>__     __|_     __>_     _>__     __<_     04/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/18/06 S&P:    1308
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '04-'05 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Some drink from the fountain of knowledge, others gargle!
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