From: Adam <""4thwormcastfromthemolehill\"{at}the field.near
the bridge">

Phil Payne wrote:
>> Also frankly I don't think the Israelis could do it & the first hurdle
>> any plan like that goes through is "could we succeed".
>
> If they even try, they give the Iranians absolute justification for actually
> developing nukes as a strategic priority.  And maybe one of the non-aligned
> will even lend them a couple to tide them over.
>
> I don't think we've had a mutual defence agreement between a nuclear and a
> non-nuclear power since nukes were invented.  Of course, the
> Anglo-Portuguese Alliance theoretically requires us to use Trident to defend
> Portugal.
>
>

Yup but I still fail to see how they could do it. Their only option would
be to extend their airforce & their submarine force in an extreme
manner which even then...would have frankly an unknown chance of success as
the full list of targets is unknown.

It would be a once only operation & they'd lose quite a few on the way
back esp if Iran located the tanker aircraft which they'd sure to be
looking for (hard to hide). Even if they sent MPA's down to the mouth of
the red sea then a std orion etc radar could pick up a 707 describing a
circuit.

& if they had their MPA'es etc up & about (let alone their kilo's etc at
sea) then the Israeli subs may also be on a one way trip (unless they came
to a deal with the Indians wrt use of Indian Ocean posts & that's
highly unlikely).

So no "Red Sea route" w/o alerting the Egyptians, Saudi, Yemeni, Omani etc.

& like I say that's if Iranian MPA aren't patrolling off Bab el
Mandab/Aden where upon the Iranians could have some F14 etc waiting as a
welcoming committee.

Sooo.......

Given Turkey wouldn't be keen that leaves....

The Jordan/Iraq route. This is why the mutterings of a fruit loop become in
essence an implicit threat.

Jordan couldn't stop the IAF & the US could lean on them not to mention
anything odd to the Iranians. The fun part of that is all the interesting
sites the Iranians have been building along with the Syrians
& which are possibly operated in conjunction with the Russians.

e.g.

http://www.asianews.it/view.php?l=en&art=7372

"In the recent conflict with Israel, Hezbollah directly benefited from
intelligence data provided by Syria, collected by listening posts jointly
operated by Russia and Syria. Hezbollah also received intelligence from
other listening posts jointly operated by Syria and Iran on the Golan
Heights, the defence journal Jane's reported. For the London-based military
and strategic affairs periodical, Syria played a key role in gathering
intelligence and transfer it to Hezbollah based on agreements Damascus
signed with Moscow and Tehran."


So it's not like the Iranians are unprepared for the IAF coming through either route.

Ergo I don't think it's possible w/o direct US help & that is once more
where we return to the mutterings of the fruit loop.

Adam

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